After three years of development, thousands of hours of feature engineering, and endless testing, I finally redid the stupid website. Goodbye ads, hello pretty new design. This platform represents what I believe to be one of the most sophisticated sports prediction models available today.
The past 5 months have been particularly exciting as we've cracked one of the final pieces of the profit-maximization puzzle: the betting strategy. Chris from wolftickets.ai and I knew there had to be a better approach than simply betting straight picks to maximize ROI. Chris was the first to discover it: parlays.
Since both of our models maintain significant accuracy and log loss advantages over Vegas, we can multiply that edge using parlays. Why? Because parlay odds aren't additive—they're multiplicative. Through extensive testing, we've found that 3-leg parlays offer the optimal balance of risk and reward. While 4-leg parlays actually showed higher ROI in testing, their boom-or-bust nature led to more extreme bankroll swings and higher bankruptcy risk. Since implementing the 3-leg strategy five months ago, the model has achieved a 50% ROI.
The Parlay Strategy
Our approach is straightforward: randomly selected AI picks combined into parlays, with no fighter appearing more than twice to prevent single-fighter dependency. The most common question I get is "Why not just parlay the +EV fighters together?" Well, I've tested hundreds of parlay permutations: underdogs only, favorites only, +EV only, 1-5 leg combinations—every variation imaginable—against a year of unseen fight data. Surprisingly, the +EV-only strategies consistently underperformed compared to randomly selected AI pick parlays.
This might seem counterintuitive, but it likely stems from how we're solving a binary classification problem. Our models excel at distinguishing wins (1) from losses (0), but may be less refined at setting precise win probabilities. I train on log loss, not accuracy—log loss being a metric that heavily penalizes confident mistakes while rewarding confident correct predictions. You can see evidence of this in the calibration curve on our About page.
But honestly? I don't care about the "why." Too many people get tunnel vision focusing on EV, which makes sense if you're working without a mathematical model like MMA-AI.net. But when you have a proven model with demonstrable advantages over Vegas odds, the only metric that matters is ROI. And our testing shows that random AI pick parlays consistently deliver the highest returns.
So here's to the new site, the new strategy, and the new model. You can find my predictions posted here on the home page and occasionally on Twitter/X or https://reddit.com/r/mmabetting before each event.